The Delhi elections have always been a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Other parties like the BSP, have not been significant players in the Delhi polls. A new party, the Aam Admi Party is claiming that it is going to be a 3-cornered battle this time, with them entering the fray.
“S-W-O-T” (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis for the BJP and the Congress, along with that of the AAP is presented below. It would contribute to the intense debate going on in the city these days.
SOldest party. Association with the freedom struggle. Support in bureaucracy. Financially strong. One family as unifying factor. Shiela Dixit’s image of decency.
WFaces double anti-incumbency (Both in Delhi and Centre). Mega corruption scams during its government at centre and in Delhi. Inflation. Deteriorating law and order in Delhi. Crimes against women. Demoralized workers.
OAnti-Congress vote getting divided between BJP and AAP. AAP equating Congress and BJP. AAP’s primary target being BJP.
TBJP providing effective alternative in Delhi. Popularity of Narendra Modi. Rising popularity of BJP’s CM candidate Dr. Harsh Vardhan. AAP desperately trying to make inroads into traditional Congress votes in slum areas. The young middle class drifting away from Congress. Social media providing minimum support. Traditionally supportive TV channels promoting AAP. Demoralized workers due to lack of inspirational leadership.
SA large disciplined cadre-base. Emergence of Narendra Modi as a powerful leader. Image of Dr. Harsh Vardhan as a clean and hardworking administrator. Good governance examples from Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh. Past record of development by BJP governments in Delhi. Support of Corporate India. Traditional support of middle class. Rising popularity of the party in educated youth.
WSlackened organization in Delhi being out of power for 15 years. Late projection of CM candidate.
OMassive anger against Congress governments at the centre and in Delhi. People’s expectation from Dr. Harsh Vardhan on performance similar to other BJP-ruled states. Modi wave for Lok Sabha polls. AAP mired in controversies lately and losing ground. Congress’ lack-lustre campaign in Delhi.
TAAP trying to gain opposition space by presence in media. AAP attracting sections of educated youth.
SLack of history and so no accountability for past actions. Arvind Kejriwal’s projected image of honesty. Attraction among people for newness. Benefit of association with the Anna Hazare Movement. Supportive mainstream media and social media.
WNew party. Weak organizational structure. Lack of experience. Total dependence on one person. Lack of issues other than corruption. No concrete and specific solutions to offer for the diverse problems. Arvind Kejriwal’s image of being against corporate India. Image of a ‘hate-all’ party. Excessive reliance on cheap rhetoric as opposed to issues of governance.
O Exploit the huge public anger against Congress. Sympathetic media.
TDanger of boomeranging of the self-projection as super-honest. Selective criticism of politicians and corporate houses causing intense reactions. New controversies daily creating suspicion. BJP’s experience and performance of good governance.